OpenAI is in trouble next year

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The Future. OpenAI exploded in 2023, with ChatGPT becoming the fastest-growing app in history. But tech moves fast (sometimes too fast), and the firm is unlikely to repeat their success next year — if regulatory authorities allow them to stay afloat at all.

Generating obstacles
ChatGPT’s smash success appears unsustainable in the long term for several reasons.

  • Competition from other tech companies is already ubiquitous, with Google’s Gemini, Meta’s Llama 2, and Elon’s Grok all threatening to poach ChatGPT’s consumer base.
  • Degradation in ChatGPT’s performance could also cripple OpenAI as some users report a decline in the quality of the model’s results or even outright refusal to fulfill benign requests.
  • Sam Altman’s deposition and reinstatement have also hurt OpenAI in the court of public opinion, potentially causing consumers to opt for alternatives or avoid the technology altogether.

Copyright where it hurts
Regulation could also sink the entire generative AI industry if judges rule that AI firms broke the law by training data sets on copyrighted material. Such a ruling might render models like ChatGPT financially untenable, because even tech companies wouldn’t be able to afford the consequent copyright fees for data sets that large and complex.  

For now, the jury’s still out.

Luke Perrotta


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